Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Koro vs Bougouni — Première Division 2019

Koro
Koro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bougouni
Bougouni
12/1/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 6Terrain ASB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Koro44%
×Draw28%
Bougouni28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koro
1.32
Bougouni
1.00

Koro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 76 away

creates per match

Koro
1.06
Bougouni
0.57

allows per match

Koro
1.44
Bougouni
1.58

finishing

Koro+0.00on par
Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koro ↓

Bougouni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Koro or draw
72%
Koro or Bougouni
72%
Draw or Bougouni
56%

Winning margin

Koro wins by 2+
20%
Bougouni wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Koro 1+ goals
73%
Koro 2+ goals
38%
Koro 3+ goals
15%
Bougouni 1+ goals
63%
Bougouni 2+ goals
26%
Bougouni 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Koro (draw refunded)
61%
Bougouni (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koro attack 1.06 + Bougouni defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bougouni attack 0.57 + Koro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Koro scores more
44%
level
28%
Bougouni scores more
28%

Koro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Koro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Koro 2 – 2 Bougouni

Koro and Bougouni drew 2-2 in Première Division on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain ASB in Bamako.