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Koro vs Afrique Football Élite — Première Division 2019

Koro
Koro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Afrique Football Élite
Afrique Football Élite
5/3/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 24Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Koro31%
×Draw30%
Afrique Football Élite40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koro
0.98
Afrique Football Élite
1.15

Afrique Football Élite creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

creates per match

Koro
1.06
Afrique Football Élite
0.86

allows per match

Koro
1.44
Afrique Football Élite
0.89

finishing

Koro+0.00on par
Afrique Football Élite+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koro ↓

Afrique Football Élite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Koro or draw
60%
Koro or Afrique Football Élite
70%
Draw or Afrique Football Élite
69%

Winning margin

Koro wins by 2+
11%
Afrique Football Élite wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Koro 1+ goals
62%
Koro 2+ goals
26%
Koro 3+ goals
8%
Afrique Football Élite 1+ goals
68%
Afrique Football Élite 2+ goals
32%
Afrique Football Élite 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Koro (draw refunded)
44%
Afrique Football Élite (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Afrique Football Élite away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koro attack 1.06 + Afrique Football Élite defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Afrique Football Élite attack 0.86 + Koro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Koro scores more
31%
level
30%
Afrique Football Élite scores more
40%

Afrique Football Élite at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Afrique Football Élite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koro vs Afrique Football Élite

Koro beat Afrique Football Élite 3-2 in Première Division on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.