Korneuburg 4–0 Waidhofen / Thaya: Result & Stats

Korneuburg

FT

4 – 0

Waidhofen / Thaya

5/4/2024

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 24druckmittel.at-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korneuburg64%

×Draw20%

Waidhofen / Thaya16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KorneuburgExpected goals in this matchWaidhofen / Thaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.99

Korneuburg

2.19

Waidhofen / Thaya

0.99

Korneuburg creates 121% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

1.84

creates per match

0.71

1.27

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Korneuburg

1.84

Waidhofen / Thaya

0.71

allows per match

Korneuburg

1.27

Waidhofen / Thaya

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korneuburg+0.00on par

Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korneuburg ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Korneuburg or draw

84%

Korneuburg or Waidhofen / Thaya

80%

Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya

36%

Winning margin

Korneuburg wins by 2+

41%

Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Korneuburg 1+ goals

89%

Korneuburg 2+ goals

64%

Korneuburg 3+ goals

37%

Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals

63%

Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals

26%

Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Korneuburg (draw refunded)

80%

Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korneuburg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korneuburg attack 1.84 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.19

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Korneuburg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Korneuburg scores more

64%

level

20%

Waidhofen / Thaya scores more

16%

Korneuburg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Korneuburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff