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Korneuburg vs Stockerau — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Korneuburg
Korneuburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Stockerau
Stockerau
3/31/2026Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 19druckmittel.at-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Korneuburg50%
×Draw22%
Stockerau28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korneuburg
1.89
Stockerau
1.35

Korneuburg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Korneuburg
1.84
Stockerau
1.43

allows per match

Korneuburg
1.27
Stockerau
1.93

finishing

Korneuburg+0.00on par
Stockerau+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korneuburg ↓

Stockerau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Korneuburg or draw
72%
Korneuburg or Stockerau
78%
Draw or Stockerau
50%

Winning margin

Korneuburg wins by 2+
28%
Stockerau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Korneuburg 1+ goals
85%
Korneuburg 2+ goals
56%
Korneuburg 3+ goals
29%
Stockerau 1+ goals
74%
Stockerau 2+ goals
39%
Stockerau 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Korneuburg (draw refunded)
65%
Stockerau (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korneuburg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Stockerau away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korneuburg attack 1.84 + Stockerau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Stockerau attack 1.43 + Korneuburg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Korneuburg scores more
50%
level
22%
Stockerau scores more
28%

Korneuburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Korneuburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korneuburg vs Stockerau

Stockerau beat Korneuburg 3-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 31, 2026.

The match was played at druckmittel.at-Arena in Korneuburg.