Korneuburg 2–0 Ortmann: Result & Stats

Korneuburg

FT

2 – 0

Ortmann

3/8/2024

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 16druckmittel.at-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korneuburg52%

×Draw23%

Ortmann25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KorneuburgExpected goals in this matchOrtmann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.18

Korneuburg

1.83

Ortmann

1.18

Korneuburg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

1.84

creates per match

1.08

1.27

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Korneuburg

1.84

Ortmann

1.08

allows per match

Korneuburg

1.27

Ortmann

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korneuburg+0.00on par

Ortmann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korneuburg ↓

Ortmann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Korneuburg or draw

75%

Korneuburg or Ortmann

77%

Draw or Ortmann

48%

Winning margin

Korneuburg wins by 2+

29%

Ortmann wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Korneuburg 1+ goals

84%

Korneuburg 2+ goals

54%

Korneuburg 3+ goals

28%

Ortmann 1+ goals

69%

Ortmann 2+ goals

33%

Ortmann 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Korneuburg (draw refunded)

68%

Ortmann (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korneuburg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Ortmann away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korneuburg attack 1.84 + Ortmann defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ortmann attack 1.08 + Korneuburg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Korneuburg scores more

52%

level

23%

Ortmann scores more

25%

Korneuburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korneuburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff