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Korneuburg vs Langenrohr — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Korneuburg
Korneuburg
FT
3 – 1
Langenrohr
Langenrohr
6/7/2024Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 29druckmittel.at-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korneuburg51%
×Draw23%
Langenrohr26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korneuburg
1.85
Langenrohr
1.27

Korneuburg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

Korneuburg
1.84
Langenrohr
1.28

allows per match

Korneuburg
1.27
Langenrohr
1.87

finishing

Korneuburg+0.00on par
Langenrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korneuburg ↓

Langenrohr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Korneuburg or draw
74%
Korneuburg or Langenrohr
77%
Draw or Langenrohr
49%

Winning margin

Korneuburg wins by 2+
28%
Langenrohr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korneuburg 1+ goals
84%
Korneuburg 2+ goals
55%
Korneuburg 3+ goals
28%
Langenrohr 1+ goals
72%
Langenrohr 2+ goals
36%
Langenrohr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Korneuburg (draw refunded)
66%
Langenrohr (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korneuburg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Langenrohr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korneuburg attack 1.84 + Langenrohr defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Langenrohr attack 1.28 + Korneuburg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Korneuburg scores more
51%
level
23%
Langenrohr scores more
26%

Korneuburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Korneuburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Korneuburg 3–1 Langenrohr

Korneuburg beat Langenrohr 3-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at druckmittel.at-Arena in Korneuburg.