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Korneuburg vs Kilb — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Korneuburg
Korneuburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kilb
Kilb
3/28/2025Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 20druckmittel.at-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korneuburg51%
×Draw23%
Kilb26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korneuburg
1.81
Kilb
1.23

Korneuburg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 87 away

creates per match

Korneuburg
1.84
Kilb
1.20

allows per match

Korneuburg
1.27
Kilb
1.77

finishing

Korneuburg+0.00on par
Kilb+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korneuburg ↓

Kilb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Korneuburg or draw
74%
Korneuburg or Kilb
77%
Draw or Kilb
49%

Winning margin

Korneuburg wins by 2+
28%
Kilb wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korneuburg 1+ goals
84%
Korneuburg 2+ goals
54%
Korneuburg 3+ goals
27%
Kilb 1+ goals
71%
Kilb 2+ goals
35%
Kilb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Korneuburg (draw refunded)
66%
Kilb (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korneuburg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Kilb away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korneuburg attack 1.84 + Kilb defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kilb attack 1.20 + Korneuburg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Korneuburg scores more
51%
level
23%
Kilb scores more
26%

Korneuburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Korneuburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Korneuburg 2–0 Kilb

Korneuburg beat Kilb 2-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at druckmittel.at-Arena in Korneuburg.