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Kornburg vs Neudrossenfeld — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
8/3/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kornburg50%
×Draw23%
Neudrossenfeld27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.79
Neudrossenfeld
1.25

Kornburg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Neudrossenfeld
1.35

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Neudrossenfeld
1.96

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Neudrossenfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
73%
Kornburg or Neudrossenfeld
77%
Draw or Neudrossenfeld
50%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
27%
Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
83%
Kornburg 2+ goals
53%
Kornburg 3+ goals
26%
Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
71%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
36%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
65%
Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Neudrossenfeld away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.79

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.35 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kornburg scores more
50%
level
23%
Neudrossenfeld scores more
27%

Kornburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Kornburg 2–1 Neudrossenfeld

Kornburg beat Neudrossenfeld 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage TSV Kornburg in Nürnberg.