Kornburg 1–1 Hankofen-Hailing: Result & Stats

Kornburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hankofen-Hailing

J. Sauer 13'

A. Wagner 71'

8/11/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kornburg41%

×Draw24%

Hankofen-Hailing35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KornburgExpected goals in this matchHankofen-Hailing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.42

Kornburg

1.56

Hankofen-Hailing

1.42

Kornburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 18 away

1.62

creates per match

1.67

1.16

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kornburg

1.62

Hankofen-Hailing

1.67

allows per match

Kornburg

1.16

Hankofen-Hailing

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Hankofen-Hailing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw

65%

Kornburg or Hankofen-Hailing

76%

Draw or Hankofen-Hailing

59%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+

20%

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals

79%

Kornburg 2+ goals

46%

Kornburg 3+ goals

21%

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals

76%

Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals

41%

Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)

54%

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Hankofen-Hailing away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hankofen-Hailing attack 1.67 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kornburg scores more

41%

level

24%

Hankofen-Hailing scores more

35%

Kornburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Sauer

65'

M. Lummer

71'

A. Wagner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff