Kornburg 1–3 Eichstätt: Result & Stats

Kornburg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Eichstätt

3/21/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kornburg34%

×Draw23%

Eichstätt43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KornburgExpected goals in this matchEichstätt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.69

Kornburg

1.48

Eichstätt

1.69

Eichstätt creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.62

creates per match

2.23

1.16

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Kornburg

1.62

Eichstätt

2.23

allows per match

Kornburg

1.16

Eichstätt

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par

Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Eichstätt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw

57%

Kornburg or Eichstätt

77%

Draw or Eichstätt

66%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+

16%

Eichstätt wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals

77%

Kornburg 2+ goals

43%

Kornburg 3+ goals

19%

Eichstätt 1+ goals

82%

Eichstätt 2+ goals

50%

Eichstätt 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)

44%

Eichstätt (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kornburg scores more

34%

level

23%

Eichstätt scores more

43%

Eichstätt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff