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Kornburg vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Coburg
Coburg
9/26/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 12Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kornburg52%
×Draw22%
Coburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.99
Coburg
1.34

Kornburg creates 49% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
74%
Kornburg or Coburg
78%
Draw or Coburg
48%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
30%
Coburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
86%
Kornburg 2+ goals
59%
Kornburg 3+ goals
32%
Coburg 1+ goals
74%
Coburg 2+ goals
39%
Coburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
67%
Coburg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.99

Coburg attack 1.53 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kornburg scores more
52%
level
22%
Coburg scores more
26%

Kornburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kornburg vs Coburg

Coburg beat Kornburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage TSV Kornburg in Nürnberg.