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Kornburg vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
8/16/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kornburg45%
×Draw24%
Bayern Hof31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.63
Bayern Hof
1.32

Kornburg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Bayern Hof
1.49

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Bayern Hof
1.64

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
69%
Kornburg or Bayern Hof
76%
Draw or Bayern Hof
55%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
23%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
80%
Kornburg 2+ goals
48%
Kornburg 3+ goals
22%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
73%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
38%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
59%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kornburg scores more
45%
level
24%
Bayern Hof scores more
31%

Kornburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Kornburg 1–2 Bayern Hof

Bayern Hof beat Kornburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage TSV Kornburg in Nürnberg.