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Korhogo vs Zoman — Ligue 1 2019

Korhogo
Korhogo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zoman
Zoman
2/8/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korhogo31%
×Draw29%
Zoman40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korhogo
0.99
Zoman
1.17

Zoman creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

creates per match

Korhogo
0.97
Zoman
0.87

allows per match

Korhogo
1.47
Zoman
1.02

finishing

Korhogo+0.00on par
Zoman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korhogo ↓

Zoman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Korhogo or draw
60%
Korhogo or Zoman
71%
Draw or Zoman
69%

Winning margin

Korhogo wins by 2+
11%
Zoman wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Korhogo 1+ goals
63%
Korhogo 2+ goals
26%
Korhogo 3+ goals
8%
Zoman 1+ goals
69%
Zoman 2+ goals
33%
Zoman 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Korhogo (draw refunded)
44%
Zoman (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korhogo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

Zoman away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korhogo attack 0.97 + Zoman defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Zoman attack 0.87 + Korhogo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Korhogo scores more
31%
level
29%
Zoman scores more
40%

Zoman at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zoman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Korhogo 0 – 0 Zoman

Korhogo and Zoman drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2026.