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Korhogo vs Mouna — Ligue 1 2019

Korhogo
Korhogo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mouna
Mouna
12/13/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korhogo29%
×Draw27%
Mouna44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korhogo
1.06
Mouna
1.37

Mouna creates 29% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

creates per match

Korhogo
0.97
Mouna
1.27

allows per match

Korhogo
1.47
Mouna
1.16

finishing

Korhogo+0.00on par
Mouna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korhogo ↓

Mouna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Korhogo or draw
56%
Korhogo or Mouna
73%
Draw or Mouna
71%

Winning margin

Korhogo wins by 2+
11%
Mouna wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Korhogo 1+ goals
65%
Korhogo 2+ goals
29%
Korhogo 3+ goals
9%
Mouna 1+ goals
75%
Mouna 2+ goals
40%
Mouna 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Korhogo (draw refunded)
40%
Mouna (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korhogo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

Mouna away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korhogo attack 0.97 + Mouna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mouna attack 1.27 + Korhogo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Korhogo scores more
29%
level
27%
Mouna scores more
44%

Mouna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mouna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korhogo vs Mouna

Korhogo and Mouna drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.