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Korea Republic U23 vs USA U21 — Friendlies 2025

Korea Republic U23
Korea Republic U23
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
USA U21
USA U21
Park Seung-Ho 12'
S. Castaneda 80'
R. Baker-Whiting 33', 7'
L. Brennan 15'
3/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Korea Republic U2319%
×Draw23%
USA U2158%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korea Republic U23
0.88
USA U21
1.75

USA U21 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Korea Republic U23
1.00
USA U21
1.75

allows per match

Korea Republic U23
1.75
USA U21
0.75

finishing

Korea Republic U23+0.00on par
USA U21+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korea Republic U23 ↓

USA U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Korea Republic U23 or draw
42%
Korea Republic U23 or USA U21
77%
Draw or USA U21
81%

Winning margin

Korea Republic U23 wins by 2+
6%
USA U21 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Korea Republic U23 1+ goals
59%
Korea Republic U23 2+ goals
22%
Korea Republic U23 3+ goals
6%
USA U21 1+ goals
83%
USA U21 2+ goals
52%
USA U21 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Korea Republic U23 (draw refunded)
24%
USA U21 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korea Republic U23 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

USA U21 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korea Republic U23 attack 1.00 + USA U21 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

USA U21 attack 1.75 + Korea Republic U23 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Korea Republic U23 scores more
19%
level
23%
USA U21 scores more
58%

USA U21 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "USA U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Baker-Whiting
12'
Park Seung-Ho
15'
L. Brennan
33'
R. Baker-Whiting
80'
S. Castaneda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Korea Republic U23 1–4 USA U21

USA U21 beat Korea Republic U23 4-1 in Friendlies on March 31, 2026.

Goals: R. Baker-Whiting (7', 33'), Park Seung-Ho (12'), L. Brennan (15'), S. Castaneda (80').