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Kórdrengir vs Álftanes — Cup 2019

Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Álftanes
Álftanes
4/21/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundFramvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kórdrengir86%
×Draw8%
Álftanes6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kórdrengir
4.48
Álftanes
1.20

Kórdrengir creates 273% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kórdrengir
4.83
Álftanes
1.57

allows per match

Kórdrengir
0.83
Álftanes
4.14

finishing

Kórdrengir+0.00on par
Álftanes+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kórdrengir ↓

Álftanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Kórdrengir or draw
94%
Kórdrengir or Álftanes
92%
Draw or Álftanes
14%

Winning margin

Kórdrengir wins by 2+
73%
Álftanes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kórdrengir 1+ goals
99%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
93%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
79%
Álftanes 1+ goals
70%
Álftanes 2+ goals
34%
Álftanes 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
94%
Álftanes (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kórdrengir at home — creates 4.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Álftanes away — creates 1.57, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kórdrengir attack 4.83 + Álftanes defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 4.48

Álftanes attack 1.57 + Kórdrengir defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Kórdrengir scores more
86%
level
8%
Álftanes scores more
6%

Kórdrengir at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kórdrengir 5–0 Álftanes

Kórdrengir beat Álftanes 5-0 in Cup on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Framvöllur in Reykjavík.