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Kórdrengir vs Afturelding — 1. Deild 2018

Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Afturelding
Afturelding
8/10/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kórdrengir46%
×Draw23%
Afturelding31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kórdrengir
1.83
Afturelding
1.47

Kórdrengir creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 75 away

creates per match

Kórdrengir
1.82
Afturelding
1.76

allows per match

Kórdrengir
1.18
Afturelding
1.85

finishing

Kórdrengir+0.00on par
Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kórdrengir ↓

Afturelding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kórdrengir or draw
69%
Kórdrengir or Afturelding
77%
Draw or Afturelding
54%

Winning margin

Kórdrengir wins by 2+
25%
Afturelding wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kórdrengir 1+ goals
84%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
54%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
28%
Afturelding 1+ goals
77%
Afturelding 2+ goals
43%
Afturelding 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
60%
Afturelding (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kórdrengir at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Afturelding away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.85 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kórdrengir attack 1.82 + Afturelding defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Afturelding attack 1.76 + Kórdrengir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kórdrengir scores more
46%
level
23%
Afturelding scores more
31%

Kórdrengir at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Kórdrengir 2–1 Afturelding

Kórdrengir beat Afturelding 2-1 in 1. Deild on August 10, 2021.

The match was played at Leiknisvöllur in Reykjavík.