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Korba vs Stade Gabesien — Cup 2019

Korba
Korba
FT
3 – 0
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
1/22/2022CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Korba55%
×Draw20%
Stade Gabesien25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
2.29
Stade Gabesien
1.50

Korba creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Korba
3.25
Stade Gabesien
2.00

allows per match

Korba
1.00
Stade Gabesien
1.33

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Korba or draw
75%
Korba or Stade Gabesien
80%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
45%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
34%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
90%
Korba 2+ goals
66%
Korba 3+ goals
40%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
78%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
44%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
69%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 3.25 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Stade Gabesien attack 2.00 + Korba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Korba scores more
55%
level
20%
Stade Gabesien scores more
25%

Korba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korba vs Stade Gabesien

Korba beat Stade Gabesien 3-0 in Cup on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.