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Korba vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Korba
Korba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
2/12/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Korba52%
×Draw30%
Sporting Ben Arous18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.23
Sporting Ben Arous
0.58

Korba creates 112% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 46 away

creates per match

Korba
1.20
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Korba
0.62
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Korba or draw
82%
Korba or Sporting Ben Arous
70%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
48%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
24%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
71%
Korba 2+ goals
35%
Korba 3+ goals
13%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
44%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
12%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
75%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 1.20 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Korba defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Korba scores more
52%
level
30%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
18%

Korba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Korba 2–1 Sporting Ben Arous

Korba beat Sporting Ben Arous 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.