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Korba vs Redeyef — Ligue 2 2020

Korba
Korba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Redeyef
Redeyef
2/1/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Korba60%
×Draw26%
Redeyef14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.48
Redeyef
0.56

Korba creates 164% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

creates per match

Korba
1.20
Redeyef
0.50

allows per match

Korba
0.62
Redeyef
1.77

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Redeyef+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Redeyef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Korba or draw
86%
Korba or Redeyef
74%
Draw or Redeyef
40%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
31%
Redeyef wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
77%
Korba 2+ goals
43%
Korba 3+ goals
19%
Redeyef 1+ goals
43%
Redeyef 2+ goals
11%
Redeyef 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
81%
Redeyef (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Redeyef away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 1.20 + Redeyef defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Redeyef attack 0.50 + Korba defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Korba scores more
60%
level
26%
Redeyef scores more
14%

Korba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Korba 3 – 0 Redeyef

Korba beat Redeyef 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 1, 2026.