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Korba vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Korba
Korba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
3/29/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Korba45%
×Draw31%
Jendouba Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.15
Jendouba Sport
0.74

Korba creates 55% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Korba
1.20
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Korba
0.62
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Korba or draw
76%
Korba or Jendouba Sport
69%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
55%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
20%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
68%
Korba 2+ goals
32%
Korba 3+ goals
11%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
52%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
17%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
66%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 1.20 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Korba defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Korba scores more
45%
level
31%
Jendouba Sport scores more
24%

Korba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Korba 2–1 Jendouba Sport

Korba beat Jendouba Sport 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 29, 2026.