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Korba vs Etoile DU Sahel — Cup 2019

Korba
Korba
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
R. Baghdadi 65'
N. Slimane 59' (pen)
M. Ben Ouannes 45'
E. Mouaki Dadi 5'
3/11/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsStade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Korba52%
×Draw22%
Etoile DU Sahel26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.94
Etoile DU Sahel
1.31

Korba creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Korba
3.25
Etoile DU Sahel
1.63

allows per match

Korba
1.00
Etoile DU Sahel
0.63

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Korba or draw
74%
Korba or Etoile DU Sahel
78%
Draw or Etoile DU Sahel
48%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
30%
Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
86%
Korba 2+ goals
58%
Korba 3+ goals
30%
Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
73%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
38%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
67%
Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 3.25 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.63 + Korba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Korba scores more
52%
level
22%
Etoile DU Sahel scores more
26%

Korba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
E. Mouaki Dadi
45'
M. Ben Ouannes
59'
N. SlimanePenalty
65'
R. Baghdadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korba vs Etoile DU Sahel

Korba and Etoile DU Sahel drew 2-2 in Cup on March 11, 2020.

Goals: E. Mouaki Dadi (5'), M. Ben Ouannes (45'), N. Slimane (59' pen), R. Baghdadi (65').

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.