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Korba vs Djelma — Cup 2019

Korba
Korba
FT
3 – 0
Djelma
Djelma
1/28/2024CupCup · Qualifying RoundStade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Korba70%
×Draw17%
Djelma13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
2.54
Djelma
1.00

Korba creates 154% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Korba
3.25
Djelma
1.00

allows per match

Korba
1.00
Djelma
1.83

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Djelma+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Djelma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Korba or draw
87%
Korba or Djelma
83%
Draw or Djelma
30%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
48%
Djelma wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
92%
Korba 2+ goals
72%
Korba 3+ goals
46%
Djelma 1+ goals
63%
Djelma 2+ goals
26%
Djelma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
84%
Djelma (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Djelma away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 3.25 + Djelma defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.54

Djelma attack 1.00 + Korba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Korba scores more
70%
level
17%
Djelma scores more
13%

Korba at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Korba 3 – 0 Djelma

Korba beat Djelma 3-0 in Cup on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.