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Korabi Peshkopi vs Vora — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vora
Vora
2/10/20241st Division1st Division · Round 20Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi51%
×Draw26%
Vora22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.50
Vora
0.89

Korabi Peshkopi creates 69% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 58 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Vora
1.02

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Vora
1.60

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Vora+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Vora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
78%
Korabi Peshkopi or Vora
74%
Draw or Vora
49%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
26%
Vora wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
78%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
44%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
19%
Vora 1+ goals
59%
Vora 2+ goals
22%
Vora 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
70%
Vora (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Vora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Vora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vora attack 1.02 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
51%
level
26%
Vora scores more
22%

Korabi Peshkopi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Korabi Peshkopi 1–2 Vora

Vora beat Korabi Peshkopi 2-1 in 1st Division on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.