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Korabi Peshkopi vs Valbona — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Valbona
Valbona
1/20/20251st Division1st Division · Round 19Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi56%
×Draw26%
Valbona18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.53
Valbona
0.74

Korabi Peshkopi creates 107% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 18 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Valbona
0.72

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Valbona
1.67

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Valbona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Valbona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
82%
Korabi Peshkopi or Valbona
74%
Draw or Valbona
44%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
29%
Valbona wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
78%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
45%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
20%
Valbona 1+ goals
52%
Valbona 2+ goals
17%
Valbona 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
76%
Valbona (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Valbona away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Valbona defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Valbona attack 0.72 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
56%
level
26%
Valbona scores more
18%

Korabi Peshkopi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Korabi Peshkopi 4–2 Valbona

Korabi Peshkopi beat Valbona 4-2 in 1st Division on January 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.