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Korabi Peshkopi vs Tomori Berat — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
11/22/20231st Division1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi54%
×Draw25%
Tomori Berat21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.58
Tomori Berat
0.89

Korabi Peshkopi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 57 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Tomori Berat
1.02

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Tomori Berat
1.77

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Tomori Berat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
79%
Korabi Peshkopi or Tomori Berat
75%
Draw or Tomori Berat
46%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
28%
Tomori Berat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
79%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
47%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
21%
Tomori Berat 1+ goals
59%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
22%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
72%
Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
54%
level
25%
Tomori Berat scores more
21%

Korabi Peshkopi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Korabi Peshkopi 4–0 Tomori Berat

Korabi Peshkopi beat Tomori Berat 4-0 in 1st Division on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.