Korabi Peshkopi 3–2 Kastrioti Krujë: Result & Stats

Korabi Peshkopi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Kastrioti Krujë

12/3/2025

1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi53%

×Draw26%

Kastrioti Krujë21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korabi PeshkopiExpected goals in this matchKastrioti Krujë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.85

Korabi Peshkopi

1.52

Kastrioti Krujë

0.85

Korabi Peshkopi creates 79% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 62 away

1.39

creates per match

0.95

0.76

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi

1.39

Kastrioti Krujë

0.95

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi

0.76

Kastrioti Krujë

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw

79%

Korabi Peshkopi or Kastrioti Krujë

74%

Draw or Kastrioti Krujë

47%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

27%

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

78%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

45%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

20%

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals

57%

Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals

21%

Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

72%

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

53%

level

26%

Kastrioti Krujë scores more

21%

Korabi Peshkopi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff