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Korabi Peshkopi vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
11/24/20241st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi47%
×Draw27%
Besa Kavajë26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.42
Besa Kavajë
0.98

Korabi Peshkopi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
74%
Korabi Peshkopi or Besa Kavajë
73%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
53%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
23%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
76%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
41%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
17%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
62%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
26%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
64%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
47%
level
27%
Besa Kavajë scores more
26%

Korabi Peshkopi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korabi Peshkopi vs Besa Kavajë

Besa Kavajë beat Korabi Peshkopi 3-0 in 1st Division on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.