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Korabi Peshkopi vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
9/27/20251st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi45%
×Draw29%
Apolonia Fier26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.28
Apolonia Fier
0.91

Korabi Peshkopi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 95 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
74%
Korabi Peshkopi or Apolonia Fier
71%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
55%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
21%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
72%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
37%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
14%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
60%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
23%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
63%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
45%
level
29%
Apolonia Fier scores more
26%

Korabi Peshkopi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Korabi Peshkopi 0–0 Apolonia Fier

Korabi Peshkopi and Apolonia Fier drew 0-0 in 1st Division on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.