Korab Debar 0–0 Velazerimi 77: Result & Stats

Korab Debar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Velazerimi 77

3/27/2021

Second League · West - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Korab Debar56%

×Draw26%

Velazerimi 7718%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korab DebarExpected goals in this matchVelazerimi 77

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.75

Korab Debar

1.52

Velazerimi 77

0.75

Korab Debar creates 103% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.56

creates per match

0.81

0.68

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Korab Debar

1.56

Velazerimi 77

0.81

allows per match

Korab Debar

0.68

Velazerimi 77

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korab Debar+0.00on par

Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korab Debar ↓

Velazerimi 77 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Korab Debar or draw

82%

Korab Debar or Velazerimi 77

74%

Draw or Velazerimi 77

44%

Winning margin

Korab Debar wins by 2+

29%

Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Korab Debar 1+ goals

78%

Korab Debar 2+ goals

45%

Korab Debar 3+ goals

20%

Velazerimi 77 1+ goals

53%

Velazerimi 77 2+ goals

17%

Velazerimi 77 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Korab Debar (draw refunded)

75%

Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korab Debar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Velazerimi 77 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korab Debar attack 1.56 + Velazerimi 77 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Velazerimi 77 attack 0.81 + Korab Debar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Korab Debar scores more

56%

level

26%

Velazerimi 77 scores more

18%

Korab Debar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Korab Debar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff