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Korab Debar vs Vardar Forino — Second League 2019

Korab Debar
Korab Debar
FT
0 – 1
Vardar Forino
Vardar Forino
9/19/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Korab Debar62%
×Draw24%
Vardar Forino14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korab Debar
1.69
Vardar Forino
0.66

Korab Debar creates 156% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Korab Debar
1.56
Vardar Forino
0.63

allows per match

Korab Debar
0.68
Vardar Forino
1.81

finishing

Korab Debar+0.00on par
Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korab Debar ↓

Vardar Forino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Korab Debar or draw
86%
Korab Debar or Vardar Forino
76%
Draw or Vardar Forino
38%

Winning margin

Korab Debar wins by 2+
35%
Vardar Forino wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Korab Debar 1+ goals
82%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
50%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
24%
Vardar Forino 1+ goals
48%
Vardar Forino 2+ goals
14%
Vardar Forino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Korab Debar (draw refunded)
81%
Vardar Forino (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korab Debar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korab Debar attack 1.56 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + Korab Debar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Korab Debar scores more
62%
level
24%
Vardar Forino scores more
14%

Korab Debar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Korab Debar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korab Debar vs Vardar Forino

Vardar Forino beat Korab Debar 1-0 in Second League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Debar.