Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Korab Debar vs Skopje — Second League 2019

Korab Debar
Korab Debar
FT
0 – 0
Skopje
Skopje
3/6/2021Second LeagueSecond League · West - 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Korab Debar46%
×Draw28%
Skopje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korab Debar
1.31
Skopje
0.92

Korab Debar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 66 away

creates per match

Korab Debar
1.56
Skopje
1.15

allows per match

Korab Debar
0.68
Skopje
1.06

finishing

Korab Debar+0.00on par
Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korab Debar ↓

Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Korab Debar or draw
74%
Korab Debar or Skopje
72%
Draw or Skopje
54%

Winning margin

Korab Debar wins by 2+
21%
Skopje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Korab Debar 1+ goals
73%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
38%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
14%
Skopje 1+ goals
60%
Skopje 2+ goals
23%
Skopje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Korab Debar (draw refunded)
63%
Skopje (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korab Debar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Skopje away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korab Debar attack 1.56 + Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Skopje attack 1.15 + Korab Debar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Korab Debar scores more
46%
level
28%
Skopje scores more
26%

Korab Debar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korab Debar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Korab Debar 0–0 Skopje

Korab Debar and Skopje drew 0-0 in Second League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Debar.