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Korab Debar vs Labunishta — Second League 2019

Korab Debar
Korab Debar
FT
2 – 1
Labunishta
Labunishta
10/12/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Korab Debar58%
×Draw27%
Labunishta15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korab Debar
1.43
Labunishta
0.58

Korab Debar creates 147% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Korab Debar
1.56
Labunishta
0.48

allows per match

Korab Debar
0.68
Labunishta
1.30

finishing

Korab Debar+0.00on par
Labunishta+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korab Debar ↓

Labunishta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Korab Debar or draw
85%
Korab Debar or Labunishta
73%
Draw or Labunishta
42%

Winning margin

Korab Debar wins by 2+
30%
Labunishta wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Korab Debar 1+ goals
76%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
42%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
17%
Labunishta 1+ goals
44%
Labunishta 2+ goals
12%
Labunishta 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Korab Debar (draw refunded)
79%
Labunishta (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korab Debar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Labunishta away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korab Debar attack 1.56 + Labunishta defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Labunishta attack 0.48 + Korab Debar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Korab Debar scores more
58%
level
27%
Labunishta scores more
15%

Korab Debar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Korab Debar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Korab Debar 2–1 Labunishta

Korab Debar beat Labunishta 2-1 in Second League on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Debar.