Koprivnica 3–0 Papuk: Result & Stats | League #215

Koprivnica

FT

3 – 0

Papuk

11/6/2022

League #215 · North - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Koprivnica87%

×Draw9%

Papuk4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoprivnicaExpected goals in this matchPapuk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

0.56

Koprivnica

3.17

Papuk

0.56

Koprivnica creates 466% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

2.83

creates per match

0.79

0.33

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Koprivnica

2.83

Papuk

0.79

allows per match

Koprivnica

0.33

Papuk

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koprivnica+0.00on par

Papuk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koprivnica ↓

Papuk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Koprivnica or draw

96%

Koprivnica or Papuk

91%

Draw or Papuk

13%

Winning margin

Koprivnica wins by 2+

69%

Papuk wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Koprivnica 1+ goals

96%

Koprivnica 2+ goals

82%

Koprivnica 3+ goals

60%

Papuk 1+ goals

43%

Papuk 2+ goals

11%

Papuk 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Koprivnica (draw refunded)

96%

Papuk (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koprivnica at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.33 · 12 matches

Papuk away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koprivnica attack 2.83 + Papuk defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.17

Papuk attack 0.79 + Koprivnica defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Koprivnica scores more

87%

level

9%

Papuk scores more

4%

Koprivnica at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Koprivnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff