Koper 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo: Result & Stats

Koper

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

K. Manseri 45'

J. Longonda 45'

V. Mijailovic 44'

S. Krpic 26' (pen)

7/17/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundBonifika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Koper46%

×Draw22%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoperExpected goals in this matchZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.67

Koper

2.00

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.67

Koper creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Koper

2.00

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.00

allows per match

Koper

2.33

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koper+0.00on par

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koper ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Koper or draw

67%

Koper or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

78%

Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

54%

Winning margin

Koper wins by 2+

26%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Koper 1+ goals

86%

Koper 2+ goals

59%

Koper 3+ goals

32%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

81%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

50%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Koper (draw refunded)

58%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koper at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koper attack 2.00 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.00 + Koper defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Koper scores more

46%

level

22%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

33%

Koper at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Koper will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Felipe Curcio

25'

Maj Mittendorfer

26'

S. KrpicPenalty

44'

V. Mijailovic↳ J. Ilicic

45'

K. Manseri↳ J. Ilicic

45'

J. Longonda↳ K. Manseri

46'

H. Jaganjac← S. Krpic

46'

A. Boljevic← J. Pejic

58'

62'

66'

67'

71'

D. Sabic← M. Cvetanoski

74'

Dženan Šabić

78'

O. Obradov← E. Alic

81'

Vini Peixoto← M. Sosic

89'

S. Jovanovic← I. Matondo

90+1'

Joao Erick

90+4'

J. Celikovic← K. Manseri

90+5'

D. Bohar← J. Ilicic

Koper

Zeljeznicar4-2-3-1

45

▼

Matondo

11

▼

Juric

99

⚽A

▼

Manseri

6

Tomek

72

A

▼

Ilicic

80

⚽

2

3

15

32

⚽

31

13

20

33

6

3

▼

Alic

8

Lagumdzij

18

Erick

14

▼

Cvetanosk

10

▼

Sosic

42

▼

Pejic

7

⚽

▼

Krpic

46'▲H. Jaganjac←▼S. Krpic

46'▲A. Boljevic←▼J. Pejic

71'▲D. Sabic←▼M. Cvetanoski

78'▲O. Obradov←▼E. Alic

81'▲Vini Peixoto←▼M. Sosic

Koper substitutes

1Abdulahovic2Odinaka4Obradov5Foco9Jaganjac11Peixoto16Sabic17Ibraheem19Sukilovic23Boljevic44Simoni90Osmanovic

Manager: Admir Adžem

58'▲N. Omladic←▼D. Juric

89'▲S. Jovanovic←▼I. Matondo

90+4'▲J. Celikovic←▼K. Manseri

90+5'▲D. Bohar←▼J. Ilicic

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo substitutes

12Strasberger25Bonaca8Domgjoni10Manssouri21Omladic22Celikovic23Jovanovic39Bohar69Negouai9Juric24Zabkar