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Koper vs Ruh Lviv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Koper
Koper
CANC
13:00
Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
2/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Koper40%
×Draw24%
Ruh Lviv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koper
1.56
Ruh Lviv
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Koper
1.55
Ruh Lviv
1.42

allows per match

Koper
1.45
Ruh Lviv
1.58

finishing

Koper+0.00on par
Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koper ↓

Ruh Lviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Koper or draw
65%
Koper or Ruh Lviv
76%
Draw or Ruh Lviv
60%

Winning margin

Koper wins by 2+
20%
Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Koper 1+ goals
79%
Koper 2+ goals
46%
Koper 3+ goals
21%
Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
76%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
42%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Koper (draw refunded)
53%
Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koper at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koper attack 1.55 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ruh Lviv attack 1.42 + Koper defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Koper scores more
40%
level
24%
Ruh Lviv scores more
35%

Koper at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Koper will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Koper face Ruh Lviv (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Koper hosting Ruh Lviv. Match starts February 3, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Koper host Ruh Lviv at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.