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KoPa vs MyPa — Suomen Cup 2018

KoPa
KoPa
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
MyPa
MyPaadvanced
4/11/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KoPa9%
×Draw12%
MyPa79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KoPa
1.26
MyPa
3.62

MyPa creates 187% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

KoPa
0.25
MyPa
1.73

allows per match

KoPa
5.50
MyPa
2.27

finishing

KoPa+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KoPa ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

KoPa or draw
21%
KoPa or MyPa
88%
Draw or MyPa
91%

Winning margin

KoPa wins by 2+
3%
MyPa wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

KoPa 1+ goals
72%
KoPa 2+ goals
36%
KoPa 3+ goals
13%
MyPa 1+ goals
97%
MyPa 2+ goals
87%
MyPa 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

KoPa (draw refunded)
11%
MyPa (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KoPa at home — creates 0.25, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KoPa attack 0.25 + MyPa defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

MyPa attack 1.73 + KoPa defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

KoPa scores more
9%
level
12%
MyPa scores more
79%

MyPa at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "MyPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KoPa 0 – 5 MyPa

MyPa beat KoPa 5-0 in Suomen Cup on April 11, 2026.