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KoPa vs IPS Edustus — Suomen Cup 2018

KoPa
KoPa
FT
1 – 3
IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus
3/11/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundUkonniemi-areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KoPa3%
×Draw5%
IPS Edustus93%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KoPa
0.94
IPS Edustus
5.13

IPS Edustus creates 446% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

KoPa
0.25
IPS Edustus
4.75

allows per match

KoPa
5.50
IPS Edustus
1.63

finishing

KoPa+0.00on par
IPS Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KoPa ↓

IPS Edustus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–37%
0–49%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

KoPa or draw
7%
KoPa or IPS Edustus
95%
Draw or IPS Edustus
97%

Winning margin

KoPa wins by 2+
1%
IPS Edustus wins by 2+
82%

Team goals

KoPa 1+ goals
61%
KoPa 2+ goals
24%
KoPa 3+ goals
7%
IPS Edustus 1+ goals
99%
IPS Edustus 2+ goals
95%
IPS Edustus 3+ goals
85%

Draw no bet

KoPa (draw refunded)
3%
IPS Edustus (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KoPa at home — creates 0.25, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

IPS Edustus away — creates 4.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KoPa attack 0.25 + IPS Edustus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

IPS Edustus attack 4.75 + KoPa defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 5.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

KoPa scores more
3%
level
5%
IPS Edustus scores more
93%

IPS Edustus at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "IPS Edustus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KoPa vs IPS Edustus

IPS Edustus beat KoPa 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ukonniemi-areena TN in Imatra.