Kooteepee 1–2 Turku PS: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

Kooteepee

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Turku PS

M. Paavola 48'

R. Riski 17'

R. Sjöroos 13'

7/17/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 16Arto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kooteepee48%

×Draw23%

Turku PS30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KooteepeeExpected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.39

Kooteepee

1.82

Turku PS

1.39

Kooteepee creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

2.45

creates per match

1.73

1.05

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Kooteepee

2.45

Turku PS

1.73

allows per match

Kooteepee

1.05

Turku PS

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

Turku PS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw

70%

Kooteepee or Turku PS

77%

Draw or Turku PS

52%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+

26%

Turku PS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals

84%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

54%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

27%

Turku PS 1+ goals

75%

Turku PS 2+ goals

40%

Turku PS 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

62%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 2.45 + Turku PS defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Turku PS attack 1.73 + Kooteepee defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kooteepee scores more

48%

level

23%

Turku PS scores more

30%

Kooteepee at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

R. Sjöroos

17'

R. Riski

19'

O. Todua← M. Lindfors

26'

31'

44'

48'

58'

63'

63'

65'

73'

J. Laaksonen← L. Weckström

73'

A. Harbas← A. Tarvonen

79'

T. Pippola

80'

A. Soiniemi

84'

E. Collin← A. Soiniemi

84'

A. Ulmanen← R. Riski

89'

E. Pitkälä← T. Pippola

89'

A. Boström← R. Sjöroos

90+2'

K. Otu

90+6'

V. Vesiaho

90+1'

B. Mensah← U. Muhammed

Kooteepee

Turku

1

Niemelä

27

Hetemaj

14

Lakkamäki

30

▼

17

6

26

10

⚽

▼

Riski

20

⚽

▼

Sjöroos

11

▼

Muhammed

19

▼

33

21

17

6

26

⚽

Paavola

7

Mäkelä

23

▼

Lindfors

16

Huttunen

10

▼

Weckström

9

▼

Tarvonen

20

▼

Tanninen

Manager: J. Nyholm

19'▲O. Todua←▼M. Lindfors

58'▲K. Otu←▼A. Tanninen

73'▲J. Laaksonen←▼L. Weckström

73'▲A. Harbas←▼A. Tarvonen

Kooteepee substitutes

28Todua24Otu8Laaksonen30Harbas1Jammeh2Huhtamäki14Edlund

Manager: M. Nuutinen

84'▲E. Collin←▼A. Soiniemi

84'▲A. Ulmanen←▼R. Riski

89'▲E. Pitkälä←▼T. Pippola

89'▲A. Boström←▼R. Sjöroos

90+1'▲B. Mensah←▼U. Muhammed

Turku PS substitutes

3Collin23Ulmanen18Pitkälä22Boström13Mensah2Häggström12Hakanpää

Ykkösliiga: Kooteepee 1–2 Turku PS

Turku PS beat Kooteepee 2-1 in Ykkösliiga on July 17, 2024.

Goals: R. Sjöroos (13'), R. Riski (17'), M. Paavola (48').

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena in Kotka.

Kooteepee vs Turku PS — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkösliiga: Kooteepee 1–2 Turku PS