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Kooteepee vs Turku PS — Suomen Cup 2018

Kooteepee
Kooteepee
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
2/9/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 3Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kooteepee30%
×Draw22%
Turku PS47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kooteepee
1.52
Turku PS
1.94

Turku PS creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kooteepee
1.87
Turku PS
2.00

allows per match

Kooteepee
1.87
Turku PS
1.18

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw
53%
Kooteepee or Turku PS
78%
Draw or Turku PS
70%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+
14%
Turku PS wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals
78%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
45%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
20%
Turku PS 1+ goals
86%
Turku PS 2+ goals
58%
Turku PS 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)
39%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 1.87 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Turku PS attack 2.00 + Kooteepee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kooteepee scores more
30%
level
22%
Turku PS scores more
47%

Turku PS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kooteepee vs Turku PS

Kooteepee beat Turku PS 3-2 in Suomen Cup on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka).