Kooteepee 1–2 KuPS: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Kooteepee

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

KuPS

R. Finnäs 20'

A. Udoh 24'

Paulo Ricardo 4'

9/18/2021

Veikkausliiga · Round 2Arto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kooteepee20%

×Draw24%

KuPS56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KooteepeeExpected goals in this matchKuPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.72

Kooteepee

0.93

KuPS

1.72

KuPS creates 85% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 114 away

0.90

creates per match

1.61

1.83

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Kooteepee

0.90

KuPS

1.61

allows per match

Kooteepee

1.83

KuPS

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par

KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

KuPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw

44%

Kooteepee or KuPS

76%

Draw or KuPS

80%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+

7%

KuPS wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals

61%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

24%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

7%

KuPS 1+ goals

82%

KuPS 2+ goals

51%

KuPS 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

27%

KuPS (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 41 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.96 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 0.90 + KuPS defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

KuPS attack 1.61 + Kooteepee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kooteepee scores more

20%

level

24%

KuPS scores more

56%

KuPS at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

20'

24'

26'

55'

57'

A. Tarvonen← Tiquinho

57'

M. Tamminen← Juan Esnáider

71'

S. Haarala← A. Udoh

78'

D. Carrillo← F. Aspegren

81'

Matias Paavola

81'

A. Mäkijärvi← Asier Arranz

81'

D. Diagné← M. Lindfors

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KooteepeeKuPS

Overview

38%Possession62%

5Total Shots10

4Corners10

11Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots10

2On Target5

3Off Target5

Passing

38%Possession62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2