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Kooteepee vs KPV Kokkola — Ykkönen 2018

Kooteepee
Kooteepee
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
8/20/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kooteepee52%
×Draw24%
KPV Kokkola24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kooteepee
1.69
KPV Kokkola
1.08

Kooteepee creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kooteepee
1.92
KPV Kokkola
1.15

allows per match

Kooteepee
1.02
KPV Kokkola
1.46

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw
76%
Kooteepee or KPV Kokkola
76%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
48%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+
28%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals
82%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
50%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
24%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
66%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
29%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)
68%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 1.92 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + Kooteepee defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kooteepee scores more
52%
level
24%
KPV Kokkola scores more
24%

Kooteepee at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kooteepee vs KPV Kokkola

KPV Kokkola beat Kooteepee 3-1 in Ykkönen on August 20, 2018.

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka).