Konyaspor 3–1 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats

Konyaspor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vanspor FK

12/2/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Konyaspor86%

×Draw10%

Vanspor FK5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KonyasporExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.24

0.65

Konyaspor

3.24

Vanspor FK

0.65

Konyaspor creates 398% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

3.33

creates per match

0.57

0.73

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Konyaspor

3.33

Vanspor FK

0.57

allows per match

Konyaspor

0.73

Vanspor FK

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Konyaspor+0.00on par

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw

95%

Konyaspor or Vanspor FK

90%

Draw or Vanspor FK

14%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+

68%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals

96%

Konyaspor 2+ goals

83%

Konyaspor 3+ goals

61%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

48%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

14%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)

95%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 3.33 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.24

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Konyaspor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Konyaspor scores more

86%

level

10%

Vanspor FK scores more

5%

Konyaspor at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Konyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff