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Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Konyaspor
Konyasporadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
1/13/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Round of 16Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Konyaspor64%
×Draw18%
Gaziantep FK18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konyaspor
2.52
Gaziantep FK
1.27

Konyaspor creates 98% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Konyaspor
3.33
Gaziantep FK
1.80

allows per match

Konyaspor
0.73
Gaziantep FK
1.70

finishing

Konyaspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw
82%
Konyaspor or Gaziantep FK
82%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
36%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+
43%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals
92%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
71%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
45%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
72%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
36%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)
78%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 3.33 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.52

Gaziantep FK attack 1.80 + Konyaspor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Konyaspor scores more
64%
level
18%
Gaziantep FK scores more
18%

Konyaspor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Konyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Konyaspor 2–1 Gaziantep FK

Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 13, 2021.

The match was played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Konya.