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Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Konyaspor
Konyaspor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
12/22/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Konyaspor61%
×Draw19%
Bodrum FK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konyaspor
2.46
Bodrum FK
1.36

Konyaspor creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Konyaspor
3.33
Bodrum FK
2.00

allows per match

Konyaspor
0.73
Bodrum FK
1.60

finishing

Konyaspor+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw
80%
Konyaspor or Bodrum FK
81%
Draw or Bodrum FK
39%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+
40%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals
91%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
70%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
44%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
74%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
39%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)
75%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 3.33 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.46

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Konyaspor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Konyaspor scores more
61%
level
19%
Bodrum FK scores more
20%

Konyaspor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Konyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK

Konyaspor and Bodrum FK drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 22, 2022.

The match was played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Konya.