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Konyaspor vs Altınordu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Konyaspor
Konyaspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Altınordu
Altınordu
12/17/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Konyaspor78%
×Draw13%
Altınordu9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konyaspor
3.17
Altınordu
1.03

Konyaspor creates 208% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Konyaspor
3.33
Altınordu
1.33

allows per match

Konyaspor
0.73
Altınordu
3.00

finishing

Konyaspor+0.00on par
Altınordu+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Altınordu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw
91%
Konyaspor or Altınordu
87%
Draw or Altınordu
22%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+
59%
Altınordu wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals
96%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
82%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
60%
Altınordu 1+ goals
64%
Altınordu 2+ goals
28%
Altınordu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)
90%
Altınordu (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Altınordu away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 3.33 + Altınordu defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Altınordu attack 1.33 + Konyaspor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Konyaspor scores more
78%
level
13%
Altınordu scores more
9%

Konyaspor at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Konyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Konyaspor 3–1 Altınordu

Konyaspor beat Altınordu 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 17, 2020.

The match was played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Konya.