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Kontu vs Ponnistus — Suomen Cup 2018

Kontu
Kontu
FT
5 – 0
Ponnistus
Ponnistus
3/27/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKurkimäen liikuntapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kontu41%
×Draw18%
Ponnistus41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kontu
3.08
Ponnistus
3.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kontu
3.50
Ponnistus
3.67

allows per match

Kontu
2.50
Ponnistus
2.67

finishing

Kontu+0.00on par
Ponnistus+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kontu ↓

Ponnistus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Kontu or draw
59%
Kontu or Ponnistus
82%
Draw or Ponnistus
59%

Winning margin

Kontu wins by 2+
25%
Ponnistus wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kontu 1+ goals
95%
Kontu 2+ goals
81%
Kontu 3+ goals
58%
Ponnistus 1+ goals
95%
Ponnistus 2+ goals
81%
Ponnistus 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Kontu (draw refunded)
50%
Ponnistus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
89%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kontu at home — creates 3.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Ponnistus away — creates 3.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kontu attack 3.50 + Ponnistus defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Ponnistus attack 3.67 + Kontu defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kontu scores more
41%
level
18%
Ponnistus scores more
41%

Kontu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kontu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kontu vs Ponnistus

Kontu beat Ponnistus 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 27, 2025.

The match was played at Kurkimäen liikuntapuisto in Helsinki.