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Kontu vs HIFK 2 — Suomen Cup 2018

Kontu
Kontu
FT
4 – 0
HIFK 2
HIFK 2
4/6/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTalin jalkapallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kontu42%
×Draw19%
HIFK 239%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kontu
2.55
HIFK 2
2.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kontu
3.50
HIFK 2
2.40

allows per match

Kontu
2.50
HIFK 2
1.60

finishing

Kontu+0.00on par
HIFK 2+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kontu ↓

HIFK 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Kontu or draw
61%
Kontu or HIFK 2
81%
Draw or HIFK 2
58%

Winning margin

Kontu wins by 2+
25%
HIFK 2 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kontu 1+ goals
92%
Kontu 2+ goals
72%
Kontu 3+ goals
46%
HIFK 2 1+ goals
91%
HIFK 2 2+ goals
70%
HIFK 2 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Kontu (draw refunded)
52%
HIFK 2 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kontu at home — creates 3.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

HIFK 2 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kontu attack 3.50 + HIFK 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.55

HIFK 2 attack 2.40 + Kontu defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kontu scores more
42%
level
19%
HIFK 2 scores more
39%

Kontu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kontu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Kontu 4–0 HIFK 2

Kontu beat HIFK 2 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Talin jalkapallohalli in Helsinki.