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Kontu vs GrIFK — Suomen Cup 2018

Kontu
Kontu
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GrIFK
GrIFK
4/29/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKontulan Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kontu55%
×Draw17%
GrIFK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kontu
3.13
GrIFK
2.25

Kontu creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kontu
3.50
GrIFK
2.00

allows per match

Kontu
2.50
GrIFK
2.75

finishing

Kontu+0.00on par
GrIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kontu ↓

GrIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Kontu or draw
72%
Kontu or GrIFK
83%
Draw or GrIFK
45%

Winning margin

Kontu wins by 2+
36%
GrIFK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kontu 1+ goals
95%
Kontu 2+ goals
81%
Kontu 3+ goals
59%
GrIFK 1+ goals
89%
GrIFK 2+ goals
65%
GrIFK 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kontu (draw refunded)
66%
GrIFK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kontu at home — creates 3.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

GrIFK away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kontu attack 3.50 + GrIFK defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.13

GrIFK attack 2.00 + Kontu defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kontu scores more
55%
level
17%
GrIFK scores more
28%

Kontu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kontu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kontu vs GrIFK

Kontu and GrIFK drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Kontulan Tekonurmi in Helsinki.