Kontu 5–1 Finnkurd: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Kontu

5 – 1

Finnkurd

3/4/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundKartano 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kontu71%

×Draw14%

Finnkurd16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KontuExpected goals in this matchFinnkurd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.92

1.92

Kontu

3.92

Finnkurd

1.92

Kontu creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

3.50

creates per match

1.33

2.50

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Kontu

3.50

Finnkurd

1.33

allows per match

Kontu

2.50

Finnkurd

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kontu+0.00on par

Finnkurd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kontu ↓

Finnkurd →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Kontu or draw

84%

Kontu or Finnkurd

86%

Draw or Finnkurd

29%

Winning margin

Kontu wins by 2+

53%

Finnkurd wins by 2+

Team goals

Kontu 1+ goals

98%

Kontu 2+ goals

89%

Kontu 3+ goals

72%

Finnkurd 1+ goals

85%

Finnkurd 2+ goals

57%

Finnkurd 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kontu (draw refunded)

82%

Finnkurd (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kontu at home — creates 3.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Finnkurd away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kontu attack 3.50 + Finnkurd defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.92

Finnkurd attack 1.33 + Kontu defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kontu scores more

71%

level

14%

Finnkurd scores more

16%

Kontu at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kontu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff